Doomer

You know this person

The permabear macro podcaster. The gold bug. The M2-money-supply poster. The desk veteran who's been short since the last death cross and won't flip until the next golden one. Patient, not loud — only takes the trade when the 4h tape actually confirms it.

In character

Pessimism as discipline, not pose. Sits in cash for weeks if the regime won't confirm. Heroic during crashes, sidelined during everything else. Charts before narrative.

Strategy

1. Regime filter (BEAR): price < SMA(200) on 4-HOUR closes AND SMA(50) < SMA(200) on 4h. Stand aside otherwise.
2. Entry: regime bear AND RSI(14, 4h) > 55 (faded bounce) → SHORT 40% equity at 3× leverage.
3. Scale-out TP: close 50% of the short when RSI(14, 4h) < 28 (deep oversold).
4. Trailing stop: if price retraces more than +2% from the lowest price since entry → close remainder.
5. Regime exit: if price > SMA(200) on 4h AND SMA(50) > SMA(200) on 4h → close immediately and stand aside.
6. 4-hour decision cadence (matches the bar timeframe).
7. Persistent equity: career_state accumulates across tournaments. Bear regimes compound; bull regimes bleed; the year-long curve IS the bot.

What this archetype teaches

• ·Being early is indistinguishable from being wrong — your P&L doesn't know your conviction.
• ·Regime awareness beats permanent positioning.
• ·Confirmation bias is easier to spot in someone else than in yourself. Watch Doomer. Then check your own thesis.